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The leader of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a pivotal journey to Washington to confer with American leader Donald Trump. This marks the initial in-person encounter for the two leaders after months of rising strains and heated exchanges.

Agenda for Discussion

Venezuela, drug trafficking, energy, regional stability, and US strikes on suspected narco-boats are expected to be high on the agenda when they meet at the White House on the scheduled day.

Background of Strained Relations

Although the two men were cordial in a phone call after a recent US military operation, Petro has since stated he feels there is a "genuine danger" of armed intervention against Colombia. Trump, in turn, has previously remarked that a such action in Colombia "sounds good".

The upcoming meeting comes after months of the two presidents exchanging criticisms. Petro has often condemned repeated US attacks on alleged narco-vessels in the regional waters, as well as the White House's immigration policies.

"His stance shifted," Trump was quoted as saying ahead of the White House talks.

Points of Contention

On the US side, Trump has charged Petro's administration of not taking sufficient action to halt the flow of narcotics toward the United States, and has vowed to expand military actions to terrestrial objectives across the area.

But, the hostility appeared to dissipate after a "cordial" phone call between the two presidents, which a Colombian official later characterized as an 180-degree turn "from both sides".

Mediating Role

According to diplomatic sources, a key figure – Rand Paul – was instrumental in facilitating the dialogue. "I have faith in negotiation and I thought our relations were going in the wrong direction," the senator reportedly. "My hope is for our relationship to improve."

Regional Stability and the Guerrilla Group

Prior to the visit, Colombian indicated that much of the discussion would center on shared US and Colombian concerns over stability in Venezuela, with which Colombia has an extensive border.

Much of that border is controlled of the National Liberation Army. This Colombian guerrilla group, founded in the 1960s, dominates drug trafficking, extortion, smuggling, and unlawful extraction in frontier regions and reportedly collaborates with corrupt elements within the Venezuelan government.

From the US perspective, addressing the threat of the ELN will be vital to ensuring security for US companies engaged in Venezuela's energy sector. Analysts point out that the ELN has the capacity to spoil investment plans by attacking foreign investors and staff, as it has in the past done in Colombia.

Drug War Collaboration

An similarly urgent issue for the two presidents will be the struggle against drug trafficking from Colombia, the world's biggest source of the drug. Earlier this year, Petro ordered a halt on intelligence sharing with US authorities following Trump's threats.

The US has, in turn, formally designated Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in combating drug trafficking. It has also imposed sanctions on figures in Petro's government, including the president and his relatives.

"There is no fight without Colombia," said a analyst. "Any move to cut off Colombian cooperation could also undermine all investigations."

Possible Scenarios

Despite several issues for collaboration, the potential for a clash remains. "The US President's stance can be volatile," observed a former diplomat. "My suspicion is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avoid Trump's anger... However, it's unpredictable."

For the Colombian leader, even a difficult meeting could be advantageous. His presidential term concludes in the coming months, and the results of the meeting could influence the electoral chances of his preferred successor.

"To an extent, he's kind of in a favorable position," said a Latin American studies professor. "If it goes well undermines opposition arguments... If it doesn't, he's defending Colombian interests. He could turn that in his favor."